Baku analysts consider AZAL Embraer crash report overly cautious

In a preliminary report on the Baku-Grozny flight crash, Kazakhstan has not provided any clear conclusions about the causes of the plane crash. The Azerbaijani Ministry of Transportation has also commented on the report with excessive delicacy.

On February 4, the Ministry of Transportation of Kazakhstan released a preliminary report on the plane crash. According to the document, the plane was damaged before the crash, and “unidentified objects” were found inside the plane. The Azerbaijani Ministry of Transportation claimed that the plane was damaged in the Russian airspace as a result of external impact.

The preliminary report on the crash “is cautious” and is replete with technical information, states Shakhin Gadjiev, a military analyst at the “Turan” agency.

Shakhin Gadjiev emphasizes the biggest drawback of the report is that it contains no conclusions. For example, according to the military analyst’s explanation, the conclusion should have refuted the claims that the cause of the accident was a collision of the plane with birds, as well as the explosion of an oxygen tank.

Kazakhstan tries “to avoid sharp corners as much as possible, to refrain from unambiguous conclusions” in order to please both Moscow and Baku, suggests Togrul Djuvarly, a member of the Azerbaijani National Public Committee for European Integration.

Azerbaijan has essentially repeated in a delicate manner its initial conclusions that the plane was unintentionally shot down by the Russian air defence forces, the expert notes. “This means that Azerbaijan expects Russia to admit its guilt and pay compensation,” Togrul Djuvarly explains.

The military analyst has added that the Russia’s possible denial of its responsibility will probably not have a dramatic effect on the relations between Baku and Moscow. “The two countries are connected by very close ties. However, this factor will bring some coolness to political contacts. Baku, of course, will from time to time remind Moscow of the disaster,” Togrul Djuvarly stated.

Let us remind you that on January 6, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliev criticized the Russian authorities for refusing to admit guilt in the plane crash and demanded that those responsible for the disaster be punished.

This article was originally published on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’ on February 5, 2025 at 12:44 pm MSK. To access the full text of the article, click here.