AZAL reports technical impact on the crashed plane in Aktau

An Embraer 190 aircraft flying on the Baku-Grozny route crashed near Aktau due to physical and technical external interference, Azerbaijan Airlines said, citing data from a preliminary investigation.

The cause of the crash of the plane of airline AZAL could have been the impact of the Russian air defense system or the explosion of an oxygen cylinder, Baku analysts believe. Government sources also voiced the theory that the plane crashed as a result of repelling a drone attack over Chechnya.

Military analyst of the Turan news agency Shahin Hajiyev believes that in the absence of official statements about the alleged causes of the plane crash, one has to rely on information from various sources, including the stories of the surviving passengers themselves, video footage distributed on the Internet, and data from services that track flights. The information available in these sources gives reason to believe that the plane’s problems began in the skies over Chechnya.

“Thus, the Swedish Internet service Flightradar24, which provides information about aircraft flights in real-time, reported that the AZAL plane was subjected to GPS jamming and spoofing (substitution of a GPS signal broadcast by satellites with a stronger signal from a ground station - note from the "Caucasian Knot") near the city of Grozny. That is, the airliner’s navigation systems were subject to electronic attack. At the same time, it is known that early in the morning the territory of Chechnya and neighboring North Ossetia was attacked by drones, which were shot down by air defense,” Gadzhiev told the “Caucasian Knot” correspondent.

On the other hand, video footage of the wreckage of the aircraft on the ground shows numerous holes on the side of the aircraft and its tail section.

“Metal fragments of the rocket skin serve as destructive force. And the holes in the wreckage could just be traces of damage from a rocket explosion. That is, the plane was not shot down, but was damaged. The explosion occurred at a certain distance from the AZAL aircraft, but fragments could have hit it. By the way, according to information from the media, at about the same time, Russian air defense shot down a Ukrainian UAV in this area. This area is saturated with Russian air defense systems, including Pantsir systems,” Gadzhiev said.

Former officer of the State Security Service of Azerbaijan, reserve colonel Ilham Ismail also believes that the cause of the plane crash could have been an external influence.

“Initially, a version appeared that the plane was hit by a Ukrainian drone. But this is rather a product of anti-Ukrainian propaganda. Kamikaze drones have specific goals. They are used to strike military targets, and civilian aircraft are not their targets. In addition, the drone directly hits the object,” Ismail explained to the “Caucasian Knot” correspondent.