Analysts are sceptical on South-Ossetian initiative to join Russia

Anatoly Bibilov, the president of South Ossetia, has used the topic of the republic's accession to Russia in order to increase his ratings at the presidential election, the analysts interviewed by the "Caucasian Knot" have pointed out.

The “Caucasian Knot” has reported that South Ossetia will soon take legal steps to join Russia, as Anatoly Bibilov, the president of the partially recognized republic, said on March 30.

Arkady Dubnov, a political analyst and expert on Central Asia, believes that the Tskhinvali's statement will not be followed by any practical steps. He has drawn attention to the inexpediency for Moscow to adsorb South Ossetia amid the absence of such desire in neighbouring Abkhazia. "The cumulative effect of this statement was quite seriously extinguished by signals from Sukhumi, where the speaker of the Abkhaz parliament [Valery Kvarchiya] assured that Abkhazia had no intention of joining Russia. Therefore, absorbing one republic and leaving the other behind is somehow not systemic. This is just a stirring of the geopolitical wind. My opinion is that there will be no practical steps on this issue," Mr Dubnov has concluded.

Bibilov's statement can only be regarded as "information noise," said Gleb Pavlovsky, director of the Effective Policy Foundation. He also considered it irrational for Moscow to absorb South Ossetia without Abkhazia.

The Bibilov's statement about South Ossetia's joining Russia was made on the eve of the next presidential election, and was dictated solely by electoral expediency, Valery Dzutsati, an analyst for Northern Caucasus at the Jamestown Foundation, believes.

"Apparently, Bibilov has few chances to be re-elected; and someone prompted him [the idea of joining], or he decided on it himself. Even if Russia doesn't adsorb South Ossetia now, this is a popular topic among the republic's electorate. Secondly, the idea is popular among Bibilov's curators in the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation. He expects to receive support from both the local population and Russian curators, who, besides, can provide additional financing," Mr Dzutsati told the "Caucasian Knot" correspondent.

This article was originally published on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’ on April 1, 2022 at 05:45 am MSK. To access the full text of the article, click here.