Taliban’s* victory does not threaten to drastically destabilize Northern Caucasus

The arrival of the Taliban* to power in Afghanistan did not provoke an unambiguous reaction among Muslims of Northern Caucasus and does not threaten the region with an increase in extremism, experts interviewed by the “Caucasian Knot” suggest.

It is too early to talk about the final victory of Taliban*, and the Muslim society in Northern Caucasus takes a generally cautious, wait-and-see position, said Akhmet Yarlykapov, a senior researcher at the Centre for Caucasian Studies of the MGIMO (Moscow State Institute of International Relations). “There is no single position. But now a cautious eye on the situation in Afghanistan prevails. People are analyzing what is happening. At the same time, everyone understands there will be serious consequences,” Akhmet Yarlykapov told the “Caucasian Knot” correspondent.

Meanwhile, the expert ruled out an “explosion of radicalism” in Northern Caucasus as a result of the Taliban’s* victory. According to Akhmet Yarlykapov, whether the Taliban* pose any danger to destabilize the situation in the Caucasus will be seen by whether their influence will manifest itself in Central Asia. “There were negotiations with the United States in Doha and with the Russian Federation in Moscow. There could well be agreements achieved, something like those as that the Taliban* ‘will be allowed to take’ Afghanistan, provided that they would not move further, to Central Asia or to the Caucasus,” Akhmet Yarlykapov said.

Caucasian expert Kirill Semyonov also did not emphasize any prevailing attitude towards the success of the Taliban* among the Muslims of Northern Caucasus.

“Some people are glad and support them, while others consider the Taliban* a threat to the security of Russia. Opinions were divided. However, it is unlikely that anything will change after the victory of the Taliban*. This will not lead to any global changes in the nature of the activities of various groups of Muslims in North Caucasus. Any radicalization is unlikely to happen,” Kirill Semyonov suggests.

*The Taliban is recognized as a terrorist organization and banned in Russia by the court.

This article was originally published on the Russian page of 24/7 Internet agency ‘Caucasian Knot’ on August 18, 2021 at 02:42 pm MSK. To access the full text of the article, click here.